‘Appear weak when you are strong …

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Just a quick analysis on how the Reset is progressing—chatter in recent months concerning a huge war, USA versus Russia on the Eurasian Continent. I’ve alluded to such chatter on this site and on the Reset slack channel so I guess the possibility should be analyzed given the military build up in Jordan is being leaked to the mass media:

Russia is a softer target than China. And Western Russia is a softer target than Eastern Russia.

An assault against Eastern Russia would be very difficult indeed. Dozens of divisions would require transport to South Korea and then punch past North Korea. If that assault were successful they’d then be met by at least one million Chinese troops.

The Korean peninsula is very narrow and troop concentrations would be easy targets for heavy artillery.

So we can safely discount the possibility of a Eurasian Continental war starting in East Asia.

A war via the Western European vector is more viable; but we should be mindful of the fact that it took Hitler, and his financiers, ten years to build up the German war apparatus. And that was during a period of Russian weakness.

Most of Western Europe has no large-scale offensive capabilities; please recall that the U.K. and France required US assistance attacking Libya.

So we can dismiss that attack vector as not viable within the Reset timeline.

That leaves the Middle East and Russia’s soft underbelly between the Black and Caspian seas. The Pentagon is presently financing an attack vector via Jordan into Syria so such a war is possible.

This regional war would pit Turkey – Russia – Syria – Iran – Hezbollah against Saudi Arabia – Israel – Jordan – USA – NATO.

Such a war would be a war of attrition. China would be tempted to sit this round of hostilities out–allowing both sides to weaken one another.

In this theatre the US navy and Israeli air force would not play a significant role due to advances in Russian missile technology. Even the most advanced stealth bombers, capable of evading Russia’s advanced radar systems, would need to travel considerable distances to deliver payloads.

And once again, how would the Pentagon get the troops to the war zone?

Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of troops would be required just to stabilize that front, as Russia, Iran, Turkey and Lebanon would mobilize their populations.

Overseas air and naval transports would be very vulnerable to advanced anti-ship and anti-air missiles. That leaves us with the overland option of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel as physically possible.

Logistically, such routes would be nightmarish as petroleum infrastructure in the Gulf would be bombed into non-existence.

Financially, though, such a war would be nigh on impossible to wage.

Under the stewardship of Powell, the final Dollar devaluation is underway; stocks have begun their crash pattern and may perform as political pretext for the Reset. And when the default happens Powell will do an unsecured print to finance the government’s war fighting ability.

Be mindful that a government’s first concern is its own survival; so war fighting is its dominant idea—First against its own citizens, and then, against foreign adversaries.

An unsecured print will cause instant global hyperinflation of commodities and panic in all urban areas of deficit nations—including the USA.

It is financially implausible that the US military retains the ability to wage war while experiencing hyperinflation and Dollar rejection. Compounding the US government’s dilemma will be the usual list of rioting, hunger, mass mania, unemployment, energy shortages and perhaps, insurrection.

Going forward, we may see a Bitcoin style crash pattern emerge in financial assets over the next few months: Equities first; then bonds, property, bank runs. The Yen dies its final death as Powell’s unsecured print severely devalues the $. Offshore Dollar dumps into alternative currencies and commodities would compound the monetary crisis.

Non-stacking and deficit nations would experience existential issues.

So war chatter of recent months, and hawkish appointments in the US administration, appear as feints and ruses to keep the creditors off-balance. And may serve as misdirection while Powell pulls the plug, keeping key players guessing, and the pro-war faction appeased.

Putrid


26 thoughts on “‘Appear weak when you are strong …

  1. Interesting interpretation of current events. I have a question. What does the term “unsecured print” mean? Are you referring to the creation of money without the creation of debt?

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    1. This is simply a hypothesis, and I’ll interpret events to see if they match the hypothesis.

      And now the reader and I can seek confirmation of that hypothesis.

      For example, China moved 300,000 troops to the North Korean border recently, why would the Chinese leadership do that? That’s a lot of troops–seems like a checking move.

      We can study the stock markets, and use price behavior to confirm or reject our hypothesis. And use TA to draw out a timeline that may have predictive power. What’s Powell’s timeline? That’s a good question. I’d like to know the exact answer to that question.

      Why did volatility return on Powell’s first day in office? Why did Schultz resign immediately afterwards, letting Merkel keep her job?

      Of course I have answers for these questions. But I proceed with an open mind as the situation is fluid.

      So far, the Reset is progressing well. All lights are green and Powell has imposed his will, and the will of the men he represents, on the System. There’s nothing to worry about; the chances of a sudden system failure is very low. So far so good. Just relax and enjoy the ride.

      Take Care,

      Putrid

      P.S. Your Q, see Volume 3.

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  2. I think you may be taking yourself too seriously. Of course your narrative is a hypothesis. Did I give you the impression I thought you had complete confirmation of your narrative? You may be out of your depth as well. Responding with hostility to a simple question is not an indication of mastery of a subject. I’ll still read your postings due to their interesting nature but I don’t like getting a snotty response to a simple question.

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  3. I think what Putrid meant is that the answer to your question is, “yes”. An unsecured print will come in the form of non-debt backed digital currency issuance (modern day version of the Greenback) to finance the war effort and stave off hyper inflationary collapse. Or cause it, lol. The USG has given itself all the executive orders necessary to requisition every last asset in America if necessary. Government will survive, even if we don’t.

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    1. @AsianCapitalist,

      I anticipate digital money which bears no interest because it’s not backed by any collateral or growth, I.e. unsecured.

      Government will want to survive, but I’m not so sure.

      I have said on Zerohedge, you need to get out of the USA, UK and Japan. And of course the Middle East, South Asia and Africa.

      There’s no need to panic, we should get to see a collapse pattern in stocks and we can analyze the rapidity of the collapse.

      Then bonds and property.

      There are scenarios, geopolitical, that can cause a sudden stop. But they’re not developing presently. So I say sit back and have a cold one.

      The biggest threat though, is not financial; it is other humans and Religion.

      Like

  4. I was just attempting to defend you for the brilliant, but flawed man (woman?) that you are. Unsuccessfully, it appears. Still, I will be having that cold one–on you, bro. Stay safe, Putrid my friend.

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  5. Cool dude, I’m calm though preoccupied.

    These days I’m engrossed by my study of TA and the Crypto market: the psychology of manipulation is fascinating. And we’ll use both in the coming days to confirm the timing of the panic.

    I see my function as finished though, so no defense is required. I’m redundant: there are many ways an unsecured print can happen, or more precisely, different words can be used to define the event but the event is the event.

    Your definition is fine; I apologized, via email, to Clayton for being short tempered and impatient.

    I was reluctant to answer the question as I’m a teacher, and I believe in the perfection of God, as do the Predators.

    The Producers and Predators were created by the cosmic process; and have they not been perfected by that process?

    Cain being the first predator, killing the productive Able.

    The Predators today are far more dangerous and cunning than Cain, wouldn’t you agree?

    They are the Imperialists that would kill one in seven, and laugh about the planning. And since they’re the product of the cosmic process, are they not doing God’s work?

    And the learned know only two large scale solutions exist: World War and the Reset. So why be angry or bitter?

    We defined both possibilities—the definition being important for certain people. There’s no point in looking for a wider audience; as the German Capitalists would say: “There are very few worthy readers.” Paul is a worthy reader.

    My personal preference is for the Reset.

    The apex predator’s instinct calls for kinetic war; for it unconsciously assumes destruction is far more efficient than construction: think how a single match can destroy a building.

    And their instinct is correct.

    But the Reset is far more efficient and simple and safe than their instinctual preferences.

    We must watch closely.

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  6. I don’t see that your work is yet finished. You have defined the terms and alerted to the Reset. You have given your reasons why it is preferable to the alternative (war). But now maybe it’s time to flesh out what “type” of reset may cause the least damage, and more importantly, how the world may look during and after the reset. Will we reset toward authoritarianism? Or in the direction of a more advanced form of collectivism? Neither? Will 7 billion people share in the wealth of the planet? A reset of this size will presumably takes years or decades. Are we further along than it appears? Perhaps it is not an “event” but a process ongoing beneath the surface. Keep asking questions.

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  7. Everyone keeps screaming hyper-inflation yet I have not seen one single plausible scenario as to how that can be achieved. Since all money is loaned into existence there would need to be massive borrowing by all people. Even with unsecured print inflation you still would have to get bazillions of …whatever$…. into the hands of a very large % of the population. Vol 3 does not flesh this out either.

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    1. If unsecured toilet-paper money will be spend for any purpose, for example for the military, everybody will try to get rid of the than worthless notes. You do not need to spread it!

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  8. Elmar – Still don’t see how the “flood of money back into the US” gets in the hands of the gen pop.

    Or are you talking about some new form of inflation where everyone has less money (happening now big time) but that less money is also worth less (also happening)…I think there is a word for that aaaahahhhhhhhhhh!

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    1. Powell,

      I can walk you through it:

      Step 1: Start by buying some bix and bitcoin. (Those Bibox executives are retarded throwaways (should have just bought the Binance coin! (oh well, (just life))))

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  9. Bid up commodities resulting in increased money velocity. Factor an ever increasing money supply and it’s over.

    I feel that the window to take down competing system is closing fast. So, that leaves us with war financing or dollar rejection/devaluation.

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  10. Trump Threatens Putin, “Animal Assad” Over Syrian “Chemical Attack”; Russia Warns Of “Grave” Response If US Launches Strike

    Is it on?

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    1. Don’t be worried by words. Just watch how the object behaves.

      For example, Soros says he’s going back into Crypto. What’s the purpose of saying that via the media?

      Is he, and his friends, trying to suck money flows into Crypto? and away from Gold?

      Perhaps. So let’s watch the price behavior of Crypto and Gold. That behavior could be educational.

      Don’t be worried by words. Wars require extensive prepositional planning and organization.

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  11. Hello Putrid,

    I have spent the past two weeks at a vipassana meditation center which I find beneficial. I cannot change people or external events but perhaps I can develop the mind trainings to change myself or at least change my unconscious reactions to external stimuli. – we’ll see 🙂

    Scanning the headlines yesterday to see what has been going on since I have been away (had to turn in my electronics), I see the reset is proceeding on schedule…perhaps speeding up a bit…it is all quite fascinating..unsettling, but very interesting all the same..

    My ego is elated that I seemingly made the ‘right’ call/gamble, based upon the information I had at the time, but my rational mind is disturbed by the implications that this may imply, i.e., extinction or near extinction of humans…alas..

    Someone corrected me at the meditation center about that story I mentioned to you about the king and queen telling the Buddha that they loved themselves more than all others…what they ‘actually’ (allegedly) said was that they love themselves and no one else. I think this is true for me. All my relationships (love or otherwise) are transactional, I endure the transactional nature of these relationships due to the percieved benefit that I receive from the person..I don’t necessarily care about the other person, for themself, I only care about the benefit that I receive from them, or perhaps I care for them only because, or to the extent, that they are providing me with ‘x’ benefit. The only person I love unconditionally is myself. I can indulge in whatever hedonistic pursuits I choose without self condemnation, pursuits that I wouldn’t tolerate in those close to me. Why this hypocrisy? Because I obviously have one standard for myself and one for all others…The difficult pill to swallow is how this relates to my child, I believed that I love my child unconditionally, but the reality is that I see my child as an extension of myself and since I love myself unconditionally, by extension, I love my child unconditionally. But it is not my child I love unconditionally, is it? (Psychologists talk about the ever increasing degrees of separation between a parent and a child – from the oneness felt towards a baby to disowning the adult child). I don’t really love my child – not as a separate individual – I only love myself.

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    1. Yes,

      The Reset is progressing very well and on schedule.

      My ego is not affected by being right. One of the benefits of having a network is confirmation; and so one can proceed with confidence. If the Reset stays on script and within the optimal scenario, we can have confidence in the future.

      We are in phase two: this is the “Political Pretext” phase. Wherein the top sociopaths and global government create the pretext for the sudden collapse in living standards and mass death that follows. Can’t just kill off two billion people all of a sudden, can we? that would cause all sorts of mental problems and endanger Religion: especially Capitalism and Ethnic Nationalism.

      Someone needs to be blamed, and there is a need in the peasant brain for ‘heroes’ and the ‘other’ who perform as sources of optimism and fear. In China, the Communist Party are the ‘good guys’ protecting Chinese peasants from crazy Trump. In the U.S., Trump is protecting Americans from the sneaky cheating Chinks.

      The manipulation is very entertaining, and I am back browsing Zerohedge for chuckles.

      What should you prepare for? since you’re staying the the United States?

      I think Venezuela is illustrative. Social Welfare is 7$ per month; or 20 cents per day. There is severe supply disruptions, a black market with very weak government and political instability.

      Of course, when the Reset proper hits, aka, Phase Three, then conditions in Venezuela may become much much worse. It’s sad that people in places like Greece and Egypt had to suffer for so long and so severely; and I’m sure their peasant brains assume “It can only get better.”

      Ha! Idiots.

      Without a stable Religion and dynamic equilibrium, there’ll be no “getting better.”

      You’re a rational man, so what to expect?

      You’ll be surrounded by a sea of irrational assholes and sociopaths: they’ll survive longest. I think the first six months will be shocking and there’ll be a huge surge in suicide. You must stay away from the cities. The rural areas will also be dangerous in the USA because there is not many small farmers; in countries like Ireland small farmers will probably trade their food surplus for silver. So survival could be tricky in the U.S. because you may see a Mad Max scenario in certain areas.

      After the first Winter, there’ll be less people, and things will improve. The key is to be located in a rural area with a food surplus. Modern housing is well insulated and so they don’t really require a source of heating for survival, unless you live in a very cold place that is. Cooking gas is far more important than heating fuel; with a chicken coop and grains for feed.

      During phase three and four; if you identify someone as a predator then go ahead and shoot that predator in the face.

      Are there real sources of optimism? Yes, there’s a lot of accumulated capital concentrated in certain clusters and if they stay stable, and phase three is quick, then the fourth phase–the stabilization phase–should be a success.

      How much Precious Metals will you need? Not much, maybe a kilo of Gold and a thousand rounds of silver. The Silver for trade and the Gold to buy productive assets.

      And Religion should deliver salvation, aka civilized behaviours.

      What’s your timeline?

      Putrid

      Like

      1. My timeline for the Reset (macro) or for me personally (micro)?

        For the macro, consider that I retired from my law practice, left Florida with my family, and headed for the mountains a few years ago. So, although I would rather be early than late, my prediction skills, time wise, are somewhat flawed/questionable…The result has been, to my extended family, I am a Cassandra and I probably caused more harm with my predictions, than I have helped…i.e., it is easier to dismiss me, as an individual, than look into the matter for themselves…oh, well, I can’t save anyone….probably not even myself…

        This being said, if feels like things are getting quite wobbly now, so I don’t think it will drag along too much longer, but that is ultimately the question…(From the western fiat faction’s perspective) will it continue to be a slow gradual decline [small steps down over time] or will we have a sudden Seneca cliff event? …I wish to get on with it already, although my rational mind knows that a gradual descent into hell would be better. I try to remember that every day of relative (apparent) normalcy is a gift, and I should be thankful and appreciative of this time – not wishing that the inevitable would just hurry up already…But my mom telling me as a child that I was going to be whipped when my dad got home, was always worse than just getting whipped straight away…it is hard to enjoy your day when you know what is coming when your dad gets home…heh.

        With this uncertainty in mind, I have attempted to structure my affairs (micro) to make this question irrelevant. I see people as the number 1 threat, so I moved to a town with a homogeneous population of 200 people, the next nearest town (county seat) has ~700 people and the entire county has less than 18,000 people. I have stored food to last my family, and perhaps others, for one year. I have acquired gold, silver, weapons and ammunition – both for my family’s use and for trade. I have paid outright for land, with several acres of already cleared pasture. The property also has a barn, a cottage, and a cleared area where we could put additional dwellings. There is a fresh water spring/stream that runs alongside the main house and cottage. I have chickens (eggs) and bees and I intend to purchase a milk cow (we do not eat much, if any, meat) and perhaps a mule. I am at the end of a dirt road, so hopefully it is defensible, and two other families live ahead of me on this dirt road. -Easy to seal off.

        Downsides: my wife and I have one child – a daughter, so I will need to co-op my neighbors and feed them during the transition period so that I will have extra hands for work and defense. I will need to be ‘in charge’, however, as neither one seems too bright and I am reluctant to allow others to have power over me..Establishing dominance will be delicate. Also this area is dominated by long-term, multi-generation locals/natives, whose backgrounds, family histories, loyalties and entanglement are not well known to me. – I am sure to be considered an outsider – but thank god I am white and am able to pretend that I am a christian – notwithstanding this fact, the local political landscape will be difficult to maneuver..Housing troops or laborers in the cottage or elsewhere on my land has advantages and disadvantages, mutiny will be a very real risk that may outweigh the benefits. The area’s religious fundamentalist may be problematic as they descend into extremism, as I do not really want my wife or daughter burned as a witch. Co-opting them will require significant finesse..

        Anyways, whether the timeline is fast or slow shouldn’t matter too much to me now. If it is slow, good, I will enjoy a wholesome life working this property/land and making it as self-sustainable as possible. If things go fast, I have a year worth of food and preps to buy us the time to transition to this new reality..Of course, if it comes down to nukes, none of the above will probably matter and I will just walk around singing…’so long and thanks for all the fish’..with my towel around my neck..

        Feel free to comment on any of the above if you feel so inclined…

        Like

        1. Ryan Wrote: My timeline for the Reset (macro) or for me personally (micro)?

          For the macro, consider that I retired from my law practice, left Florida with my family, and headed for the mountains in 2013. So, although I would rather be early than late, my prediction skills, time wise, are somewhat flawed/questionable…The result has been, to my extended family, I am a Cassandra and I probably caused more harm with my predictions, than I have helped…i.e., it is easier to dismiss me, as an individual, than look into the matter for themselves…oh, well, I can’t save anyone….probably not even myself…

          Putrid: Yes, the great mistake of many was to listen to the idiot Doomers on Zerohedge and elsewhere. There was only negligible risk of system failure, until 2017 that is: System volatility arrived when the Crypto system began to hyperinflate.

          You know the Doomer is understudied when they can’t explain, at the operational level, how Systemic collapse will happen. You’ll note, with the output of idiots, the absence of specifics.

          The peasants are intellectually lazy, preferring to listen to ‘priests’ rather than do their own study.

          Paul: This being said, if feels like things are getting quite wobbly now, so I don’t think it will drag along too much longer, but that is ultimately the question…(From the western fiat faction’s perspective) will it continue to be a slow gradual decline [small steps down over time] or will we have a sudden Seneca cliff event? …I wish to get on with it already, although my rational mind knows that a gradual descent into hell would be better. I try to remember that every day of relative (apparent) normalcy is a gift, and I should be thankful and appreciative of this time – not wishing that the inevitable would just hurry up already…But my mom telling me as a child that I was going to be whipped when my dad got home, was always worse than just getting whipped straight away…it is hard to enjoy your day when you know what is coming when your dad gets home…heh.

          Putrid: Yes, the end is drawing close. No one is quite sure what ‘monetary collapse’ means and how it’ll play out. There are many plans and many more possibilities. When we study history though, it is clear that Gold is special. When the sheep panic, or begin to be thinned, its buying power is universal and extraordinary.

          Paul: With this uncertainty in mind, I have attempted to structure my affairs (micro) to make this question irrelevant. I see people as the number 1 threat, so I moved to a town with a homogeneous population of 200 people, the next nearest town (county seat) has ~700 people and the entire county has less than 18,000 people. I have stored food to last my family, and perhaps others, for one year. I have acquired gold, silver, weapons and ammunition – both for my family’s use and for trade. I have paid outright for land, with several acres of already cleared pasture. The property also has a barn, a cottage, and a cleared area where we could put additional dwellings. There is a fresh water spring/stream that runs alongside the main house and cottage. I have chickens (eggs) and bees and I intend to purchase a milk cow (we do not eat much, if any, meat) and perhaps a mule. I am at the end of a dirt road, so hopefully it is defensible, and two other families live ahead of me on this dirt road. -Easy to seal off.

          Putrid: Sounds good. One of buddies got me an easy job in a Shanghai suburb, and I’ll probably stay here if war is avoided. My family home in Ireland is pleasant but I think the atmosphere in Eire will be morbid. At least in China I’ll have something to keep me preoccupied.

          Paul: Downsides: my wife and I have one child – a daughter, so I will need to co-op my neighbors and feed them during the transition period so that I will have extra hands for work and defense. I will need to be ‘in charge’, however, as neither one seems too bright and I am reluctant to allow others to have power over me..Establishing dominance will be delicate. Also this area is dominated by long-term, multi-generation locals/natives, whose backgrounds, family histories, loyalties and entanglement are not well known to me. – I am sure to be considered an outsider – but thank god I am white and am able to pretend that I am a christian – notwithstanding this fact, the local political landscape will be difficult to maneuver..Housing troops or laborers in the cottage or elsewhere on my land has advantages and disadvantages, mutiny will be a very real risk that may outweigh the benefits. The area’s religious fundamentalist may be problematic as they descend into extremism, as I do not really want my wife or daughter burned as a witch. Co-opting them will require significant finesse..

          Putrid: As the crisis unfolds your family will probably begin their own preparations. I used to worry that my affluent and comfortable family wouldn’t take any steps to protect themselves; until I realized that the crisis will become clear to see as the finale draws close. I simply posted them a copy of The Reset and told them what to do.

          Yes, your neighbors:

          The number one issue in the USA is that your neighbors will interpret the Reset as a biblical event. And they may be right to do so: there appears to be a spiritual (Cosmic) process delivering Mankind to this juncture. This Cosmic process is saying something about God’s nature, and whether his nature is benevolent?

          The scope of his Creation is truly vast; so yes, we can assume his focus was on the macro process which would deliver the ultimate End. Thus, the collective performance and destiny of Mankind may not loom large on his horizon. Given this assumption, which sets aside a human centric worldview; we may see Mankind as an intermediary configuration toward his ultimate End.

          I sincerely doubt we’re as important as we like to imagine.

          Your neighbors will likely see the Reset as the Day of Judgement. Those humans that didn’t care for, respect, and tend God’s Garden are about to be punished, severely. So the long guns will be warm and righteous, and outsiders that are burdensome will be fended off.

          I sincerely doubt your ability to hoodwink your neighbors, as they’ll be naturally suspicious and on edge. If their instincts are good they’ll see you as a threatening predator and kill you. This is especially true since you don’t celebrate mass with them nor have you married your daughter into one of the local families.

          I’ve noted you’ve sought inner peace in Eastern mysticism, unsuccessfully it seems. Myself, I don’t desire inner peace, I know what I am; I’ve preferred to use my time to define the Reality and approach the Reality as the man that I am.

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          1. Paul,

            You were right. That’s what’s important.

            You were right to unplug yourself from a collapsing system. If you hadn’t done that, you and your family, would be completely dependent on a system which is dying.

            You will continue to do well,

            R

            Like

    1. I’m not sure, I only know Capitalism. I would only focus on what you can prepare for. Outside risks are very difficult and prohibitively expensive to prep for.

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  12. Syria strikes happened a few hours ago. Russia did not retaliate and the scope of the attack was limited. Was this designed to intimidate Russia/Syria and Iran? Or, on the other hand, it was just a skirmish that will not have real consequences?

    What was achieved with the attack? Why they always strike on Fridays – were they afraid of a market collapse?

    Questions with no easy answers. At least, I don’t have them.

    Have a good weekend.

    Like

    1. I’m not worried. There’s a lot of war talk but I see no significant build up toward Continental War.

      Trump appears to be increasingly unstable and insecure, so he’s feeling the pressure. He knows he’s fucked, but so far so good: a pretext is being authored. The missile attack keeps everyone off balance and the War Kings placated.

      Take it easy, this is nothing, enjoy your weekend.

      Putrid

      Like

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