Bankers Approach Extinction Level Decision Point

Russia

Number one problem is the monetary system, it’s in big trouble. Do we prolong it? or bury it?

First question, can it be prolonged? Is that even possible at this point?

There are two paths to consider:

1) Lower rates to negative. I believe this path leads humankind to extinction level decision points. The extinction risk wouldn’t be immediate, but the possibility would grow with time as political leadership shifts from Bankers and Dictators, to the Generals.

As far as I can see, the number one issue with negative rates is that it turns assets into liabilities:

Anything that produces an income is an asset; but a negative rate environment is one that enforces a loss making environment upon all agents. Even keeping cash in a bank, or in Treasuries, would inflict a loss upon the owner. If we lift lockdown with a trend toward negative rates, then the smart money will fire sell all “assets” into Gold. Because they know, ultimately, that taxation (indirect and direct) will change the asset into a tax liability.

Why own a car? It’ll be taxed via insurance and licensing. A house? Taxed. Commercial property? Taxed. Stocks? Taxed. Treasuries? Taxed. Negative rates is like a tax on ownership, this will collapse flow forcing governments to raise taxes on existing stock. If the exchange value of an asset is depreciating due to taxation, then agents will soon learn that renting makes the most sense and they’ll sell everything.

This would result in anarchy. There’d be no investments. If rates are kept at zero, then same problem just not as imminent. The Fed can give Trillions to the banks, it just won’t matter. There’s nothing to do with those Trillions. It’ll generate no profit, and be run down by losses and costs.

Ultimately, government can tax two things: profit and assets. With rates at zero there’s no profit to tax, so that leaves them with taxing existing assets. Small businesses would fold first, then households. There’ll be huge political pressure on the central bankers to continually print to finance all levels of government: this results in hyperinflation of the cost structure and cascading bankruptcies, aka mad max scenario.

2) Raise rates above the general rate of growth. Say raise it to 6%, that would force all entities not earning enough revenue to service 6% to file for bankruptcy—forcing them to discharge debt and restructure their costs. It’s the inflating cost structure that is the number one economic issue inside the US; nothing can be fixed until that is fixed.

Unfortunately, Secretary Mnuchin had a great chance to do this in late 2018 and he bottled it. What a missed opportunity, a historical failure of leadership.

Now, this path is also very dangerous, because the oil system would be endangered by low pricing power. If rates are raised, Gold may need to be brought in-system to semi-permanently raise an inflationary backdrop to support those raised rates and oil consumption.

You could also block China to raise inflation, but that would only crash the profitability of American corporations and restrict supply to the US—supplies required for rebuilding—and third party nations would be forced to choose between abandoning Chinese investments and … fake money?

I think business is business, and the owners won’t like that.

Difficult situation, deadly.

 


59 thoughts on “Bankers Approach Extinction Level Decision Point

  1. Option 1 is a temporary option which can only be exercised for one year, since the big agrobusinesses will grow nothing in such situation. Just like the situation Bill Gaede described (nobody will grow anything other than what they need for themselves so everyone starves.) Still, I think the bankers will go for option 1, hoping things will change in the 12 month period.

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  2. The financial arm has locked us in a financial paradigm that is guaranteed to collapse through the compounding equation of debt raised to the power of time. Nothing can keep apace with it, including the extraction of resources that are getting increasingly scarce due to the attempts to redistribute them to billions of people.

    The top guys have shown time and time again that they can only extend and pretend, isn’t that evident? Think about how many opportunities there have been to really make hard changes and serious reform especially pre-2008 and yet here we stand. Option 1 is the more likely choice. In regards to option 2, they have shown to not have the courage and stomach to raise rates and induce mass bankruptcies, which would set of a cascade that exposes the house of cards for what most of it is, a scam.

    My conclusion is that there is no way to reform the current “System” which is Techno-Industrial Civilization.
    The “System” is imposing its will on the caretakers of it at this point, for if they do not seek to preserve the “System” then it will kill them and billions of others, which of course is going to happen anyway but why not put it off as long as possible?

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  3. Extinction sounds like good Kabuki.

    “All good things must come to an end.”
    – the original Q

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  4. I don’t think there are any options. Staggering amounts of debt with interest rates in the positive territory have already been created. Just servicing the existing debts will create hugely deflationary headwinds for the economy. Then you have local and state governments that will necessarily tax everyone and everything to service existing debts and obligations. Hugely deflationary for local businesses and residents..think places like NY and CA. Business owners and those that are able are liquidating and leaving those areas. Also NY, CA and other indebted governments are now talking about bankruptcy. Who wants to buy a bond that might not be redeemable for full value? The Fed. government is a different situation. No one holds Fed. government debt for the interest, they hold it for the appreciation of the bond. Believe it or not, there is still meat on that bone. At least for now.

    Institutions and savers dependent on interest payments for income will be decimated. IMO opinion the cake is already baked and coming fresh out of the oven. The boomer generation is completely screwed. That’s 26% of the U.S. population. They will be bankrupt into old age. We will be in a greater depression for at least a decade until debts are defaulted upon and assets are repriced to create positive cash flow in an environment where governments act more like mafia enforcers. That means repriced “assets” will necessarily be real cheap. Assuming these assets are still viable as the supply chain continues to erode.

    Large corporations will flee jurisdictions that don’t give them massive tax breaks. Simple as that. Many corporations will fold and many will relocate to escape being used as tax donkeys. Same as it ever was.

    Bottom line…I expect bi-flation similar to the 70’s but on steroids. Interest rates will never be allowed to rise because the debt can’t be serviced given the state of the economy. Lots of possibilities after that…war, U.S. default, Bretton Woods III accord, reset of the Gold price, reset of the world order etc..nothing good for U.S. residents, we are going to take a big hit.

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    1. This isn’t the 5th century, whereby you could live an entire life (Priest Salvian) through a slow collapse pattern. Because of the internet ? the speed of change has increased … astonishing how fast the lockdown spread …

      But we do have a similar multi decade trend to Rome: failed wars of conquest alongside debasement of the currency, and then the kiss of death … letting the barbarians in.

      When the barbarians starting slaughtering the local plebs (France, 2015 onwards) the danger became apparent and the psychology changed … too late though.

      Followed by political amateurs in power presiding over the dole and final collapse.

      Amazing how trends and patterns repeat … but option one would cause an extraordinary fire sale … wow … just wow … that’ll be something to see.

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      1. Speed of information propagation has changed hence speed of change but still the propagation is fully realized and implemented in generation time-frame. However I think that there is just one pattern. The path of the species moves along on an outward spiral which at one point turns into inward one (a negative development moment?!). We are at this very moment of time when the spiral starts closing and sliding into itself. Fall from grace?
        Whichever option is chosen doesn’t matter, neither one or two will change the sliding inward. The inevitable outcome is closing of the spiral at its fulcrum before opening out again. No change or new paradigm is possible before that. It is burn baby, burn until everything that can catch fire turns to ash. All possible options differentiate in terms of time but not in terms of an outcome. It is an ecosystem with all the energy, environmental and behavioral networks in place and it will change only when all those networks and paths are destroyed and new ones devised.

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  5. If we follow along with what really happened in Venezuela..assets priced in the Bolivars experienced hyperinflation. Those same assets priced in Dollars saw a deflationary collapse. Example: One of my sister-in-law’s purchased a house about 15 years ago. She had a loan denominated in bolivars for $150,000. She moved to Aruba and decided to sell her house because she’d had enough of Venezuela. She didn’t want Bolivars she wanted Dollars. Her house sold last year for $25,000 Dollars. She was pretty upset, but I thought she did pretty well. So which is it? Hyperinflation or deflationary collapse? This is a simple but very true example. What I find interesting is that we only hear about Venezuela’s hyperinflation. I noticed the talking heads almost never describe the Venezuelan collapse in deflationary terms. The key to surviving what we’re going through is to have assets that retain relative value on the other side of the collapse. Thus you can’t measure your wealth in Dollars, because Dollars are a terrible measuring stick. Some people suggest Bitcoin. Gold and to a lesser extent silver have been the traditional go to assets. Getting to the other side without getting killed, starving, doing sex acts with strangers for food, getting scammed, getting robbed by the government, getting robbed by thieves, are the lessons of Venezuela. And of course the collapse happens relatively quickly while the recovery takes a very very longtime. The people of Venezuela had places they could escape to..Miami, Columbia, Spain, Aruba..This time there will be no where to run. There are many nuanced lessons we can learn from Venezuela..too many for a simple post, but you get the gist of it.

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      1. Not necessarily commodities but the general quality of living.

        Individual commodities can fall due to dislocation.

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      2. “Will there be any assets”? Of course there will be assets, but what we value today may not be what is sustainable or valued tomorrow. Even knowing what we need to do doesn’t mean we will make it through to the other side of what I see is the greatest collapse since the fall of Rome into the dark ages.

        Let’s say you have a building that has10 apartments available. Before the collapse everyone pays the rent and you’re able to live in the building with your tenants and pay your mortgage from the profits. I’d call this scenario the American dream. COVID-19 hits. 30% of your tenants lose their jobs and 70% take advantage of the government forbearance program. You’re short 70% of the mortgage payment. You could pull from savings but decide to claim forbearance to your bank. COVID-19 ends. You owe 1 year of debt payments. At this point none of your tenants are paying you rent. Everyone now understands how to play the system. You go to the bank and you plead…for more time or for debt forgiveness. The bank says no. Now what? How much is your property worth if you can’t earn rental income. Probably a lot less than your mortgage debt. So do you pay out of pocket or do you say fuck the bank and squat like your tenants? You tell the bank to stick it up their ass. You saw this game in 2008. I know guys and gals that lived mortgage free for 4-8 years. At this point everyone remembers that game and will be salivating at the opportunity to play it again. The bank looks at the situation…to foreclose they’d have to show 2 million in losses. The apartment complex once valued at 3 million is now only worth 1 million in today’s deflationary environment. So they go back to you and say..tell you what..just pay the taxes and we will re-adjust the terms of your loan. Fact is they don’t want to write off a 2 million dollar loss. In Venezuela the politicians quickly realized that allowing their citizens to lose their houses was a quick was to lose elections. In Venezuela the politicians sacrificed the Bourgeoisie to the poor so that they could keep their lips on the teat of state handouts. Expect expanded socialism and marxism in the days ahead…Politicians are the same slimy shitfucks everywhere. They would gladly sacrifice 10 middle class families for a hamburger today.

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  6. Before you assume there isn’t a Venezuelan example to show us the way..you’d be mistaken. I have another sister-in-law that purchased an apartment. She rented this apartment out to a Columbian guy working at the Columbian embassy. The guy paid like clockwork. My sister-in-law wanted “mas dinero”…she jacked up the rental price. The Columbian embassy employee said no…I’ve got other, nicer options that are cheaper. She said hit the road, and rented out the apartment to a gym instructor, with a wife and new baby. Within 2 months they declare forbearance. LOL…no shit..swear to God a true story. She went to court and paid under the table….a lot of money to get a positive judgement. In the end..the court took her money and declared for the squatters with the new born baby. Point is the rules and laws will always benefit the politicians. There will be more inflamed and righteous poor people voting with their pocket books so expect politicians advocating socialism to gain the upper hand during such times. Politicians will adjust their B.S. accordingly. Because when you have little to no income you don’t give a fuck who pays or how the middle class is being ripped apart to pay the greater burden of society. The rich don’t pay…they leave for greener pastures and if shit hits the fan they fold up their businesses and tell the socialists to figure out how to import and distribute rice or beef or lumber or drywall…etc….And for the most part socialists are simply symbiotes… promising the world a chicken in every pot but never understanding the means of production or distribution. They’ve been born and bread living on a productive host. Well now the host has died and they don’t know what to do, so they go fucking crazy…to hold power…ergo Maduro. And to be honest…I like the idea of a bus driver as President of Venezuela. It just smacks of shit hitting the fan. The big rich MFers…got removed, now the little guy is in control but he never drove a nation before. He lacks the education and the breeding. God Bless Venezuela. Unfortunately, the problem with the U.S. leadership is that we lack the education, the culture, and the connections, to get us out of this declining spiral. Some people suggest the richest and most influential “families” will lead us out of the dark times, well I suspect the families have fallen short of their commitments to leading humanity. I think they’re playing with little kids and have debauched themselves to some underworld demon. The vacant leadership vacuum will be filled by something.something less than optimal.

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    1. Peter G, great comments.

      In regards to your last bit, many do not realize that many of the “families” or what many refer to as Royals, Lords, etc. have been subjected to many generations of incest and inbreeding within their own families. You see this with the Spanish Royals very clearly in pictures, the Rothschilds admitted to it and it is very evident with several of their members. In America, you have the DuPont family where older family members raped their own children and another went on a killing rampage. Add on top of this the occult religions that include absolute depravity such as pedophilia and murder and one realizes they won’t be leading “anyone” except into the abyss.

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      1. I can testify that the English lost Ireland because they were marrying their cousins, it’s a slow rot but once it starts it can’t be fixed … there develops multi-generational tendencies toward depression, gloominess, schizophrenia, ugliness, sterility, and physical weakness.

        I prefer having sex with peasants. If you have sex with a Chinese peasant it’s like having sex with a rock … even their tits are hard. The farmers are best for this.

        You need to mix it up … take me for example … I’m a total nerd, kinda useless, but attach a peasant to my brain and it’s a very productive affair. If you’re a really smart abstract guy or girl, you should get yourself a good peasant.

        I can’t recommend them more.

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        1. I like sex with peasants too.. Did you ever notice the words peasant and pheasant, and pea.. ant. are closely related? Words are a funny thing. Let’s hope we aren’t fucking farm animals, small colony based insects, and vegetables..whoops I said it. Sorry… The fact is the upper class is inbred because they don’t have a formal breeding program. A breeding program like those we create for horses, bulls, and other livestock. They should consider a Dune style Bene Gesserit order to breed humans to excel beyond farm and garden variety stock. Then again..maybe not, and maybe someone already has.

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  7. They sent a probe to improve the accuracy of predicting Coronal Mass Ejections…

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/12/sun-keeps-getting-stranger-parker-solar-probe-shows/

    ‘More immediately, the surprising rotational speed could also be affecting predictions about the trajectories and arrival times of coronal mass ejections, the solar spasms that can take out power on Earth.

    “Often, the CME moves in a direction we’re not expecting … if there are large flows sideways, this could be a big reason why we do a bad job predicting coronal mass ejections,” Kasper says. “Well, I wouldn’t say we’re lousy at it, but we’re not great at it.”

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    1. This comment was actually a note on my previous comment, which is somehow not visible…

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      1. Julian you’re worrying about events that happen every few million years and that’s not profitable study.

        The nerds already know why huge numbers periodically drop dead and that includes the nerds here:

        The number one reason is hunger.

        How can it happen to us?

        It can happen if the deflationary wave continues and it becomes unprofitable to produce the next round of commodity inputs, including food.

        I’m amazed the bankers are insisting on not dealing with this deadly threat. It’s insane; in my opinion, there’s no leadership with the required balls. As I mentioned above.

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        1. This lack of rationality of bankers, as noted by many here, is striking, and this is why I pointed that maybe the rationale is different than a purely financial one, and that could be the coming danger of collapse of grid by Coronal Mass Ejection.

          From time to time comets release powerful CMEs, depending on how powerful their electric charge is, probably, and now such a comet closes for an encounter with the Sun on 31.05.2020…. Besides, the quoted 2012 article was from ‘Forbes’, so bankers are aware… The quoted ‘National Geographic’ articles mentions CMEs research as one of the reason for the Parker Solar Probe.

          https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2012/11/30/sun-grazing-comets-as-the-trigger-for-electromagnetic-armageddon/#60fdeee85d20

          CMEs by comet encounter do not happen once per million years, on the SOHO observatory website you can see a couple of fine examples…

          https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/gallery/Movies/comets.html

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          1. Take a toke dude, breathe … I’ll let you know if the charts start pricing in “the blackout.” So far, nothing.

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  8. Inbreeding occurs because the elites simply do not want outsiders in their narrow circle. Cleopatra’s family inbred for 300 years but created the best known pharaoh of all time. Cleopatra tried outbreeding, but that didn’t work out so well.

    Inbreeding keeps the wealth, power, etc in the family. What happens after too many generations of inbreeding is that one does not get to see outside of one’s own circles.

    East Asian countries coped with that with concubinage. While royal and noble families married among one another, it was quite rare that the official wife from a noble family to bear children since it was kinda painful. it was usually the more ambitious concubines of lesser nobles, or sometimes commoners, who produced the heir which kept the stock kind of going, although it created imperial relatives who were not exactly part of the Families.

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    1. In Europe concubinate was popular in the Ottoman Empire, concubines being actually sultan’s slaves.
      Already then Russian women made themselves known for cunning ambition, like the famous Roxolana/Churrem.
      Unfortunately, the system didn’t really promote the best, but the most connected in the harem and the Divan (goverment).
      Supernumerary princes often ended strangled to death by colourful silk ropes (irony: it was the sign of the highest respect).
      Therefore, from the genetic point of view, Ottoman dynasty does not exist anymore. You could actually consider it as a worse version of adoptive dynasties of Roman Empire.
      Actually, adoption works the best (Traian, Nerva, Hadrian, Marcus Antonius). The moment Marcus Aurelius was suceeded by his alleged real son, Commodus, it stopped working.

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      1. For reasons unknown, the modern European civilizationm, which claims to stand on shoulders of Roman jurists, does not allow the adoption of adults by adults like the Romans.
        Serious mistake in terms of husbandry. If a mistake…

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      2. Actually the Ottomans abandoned fratricide sometime in the 17th century, but that did not improve the stock too much.

        Adoption just hands over the power to another clan. The Japanese tried that for some time, but, again, sooner or later the adoption occurred in the same circles.

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  9. We are staring into the abyss.

    In 2015 the great Venezuelan oilfields, Bachaquero, Lagunillas, Tia Juana were down to circa 12% reserves.
    In 2015 Venezulean oil production started sharply falling, until 600 kbd now, which, unlike the great fields, is heavy oil from Orinoco.

    In 2003 dr Bakhtiari of Aspo projected Iranian oil production of 2 mbd in 2018, with or without sanctions.

    Venezuelan oil production fell 1,6 mbd in 3 years, Iranian oil production fell 2mbd in 2 years.

    How many fields are now approaching 12, 10% of reserves?
    But we cannot sanction Saudi Arabia like we sanctioned Iran and Venezuela.
    So, Covid them! Covid has been ready since 2011 I read.

    It look that the fall of oil production up to 50% is imminent.
    The war with China must be therefore imminent too, in 1 – 2 years.

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    1. You might as well get baked … this crash pattern is gonna take years. South Thailand is quite stunning … every plant a vibrant green.

      They’ve mostly switched to LNG to power their vehicles, and I’m sure that trend will grow. Hard poverty in the villages; just avoid those and you’ll be grand.

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      1. LNG is a byproduct of oil production, part of NGL.
        They had better switched to CNG, Compressed Natural Gas.

        It seems that we are victims of the greatest ever perception managment. Misdirection is that it is all about money, whereas it is about oil. Look at oilprice.com, instead of rejoicing that oil prices are rising, they want to believe that it is all mirage, and we are swimming in overflowing storage, so there is no need to produce anything.

        Are we to believe that only due to sanctions oil production in Venezuela and Iran somehow suddenly tanked? That only white man is able to produce oil? The 2,4 mbd of oil was flowing long years in Venezuela under Chavez, and 4 mbd in Iran under ayatollahs. Note that such a perception managment is good for ayatollahs and chavists too…they hide before their own people that not much is left.

        https://www.voltairenet.org/article209900.html

        The West is preparing to take over Venezuela. Venezuela and Canada seems to be the only long-term oil providers. Maybe that are countries to be. I heard Venezuelans are coming back there from USA.
        In other news, EU is unable to secure Libya oil. Or Libyan oil exists no more?

        Maybe we are approaching our own 1177 BCE, the year civilization ended. As a reminder, only one country survived 1177 BCE – Egypt.
        Who will survive now? USA, China or Europe?
        It seems that long term there is only 10 mbd available, so pick one.

        I used to believe that oil problem is essentially EROI/debt problem, but maybe we really are already facing physcial shortages…. It seems we have missed the phase where it was only the debt problem.

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  10. It seems we are tracking old projections from 2003. Note the very low Iran production in 2020. Also, if you subtract the real Iraqi production of 2020 (4550) from the 2020 projected one, and add it to the 2020 projected Iran production, you get the actual 2020 Iran production, more or less. We are said that Iran is sending its oil through Iraq, but maybe the opposite movement takes place.

    Table 4. Forecasts for Middle East countries over
    2005-2020 by WOCAP model (Base Case —
    average of 25 $/b in 2003 $). (figures in thousands b/d)

    4a. Middle East 4 lower producers.

    Country 2000 2005 2010 2020

    – Bahrayn 35 25 20 10
    – Pakistan 65 70 40 30
    – Syria 540 410 300 155
    – Yemen 440 405 290 145

    Middle East low-4 1,080 910 650 340

    4b. Middle East 4 mid-size producers.

    Country 2000 2005 2010 2020

    – Kuwait 2,150 2,160 1,820 870
    – Oman 960 790 580 340
    – Qatar 795 600 490 320
    – U.A. Emirates 2,515 2,500 2,220 1,160

    Middle East mid-4 6,420 6,050 5,110 2,690

    4c. Middle East 3 large producers.

    Country 2000 2005 2010 2020

    – Iran 3,770 3,240 3,440 1,140
    – Iraq 2,625 3,490 5,560 5,250
    – Saudi Arabia 9,145 9,260 9,430 8,000

    Middle East 3 15,540 15,990 18,430 14,390

    Total Middle East 23,040 22,950 24,190 17,420

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    1. We have the data Julian, and yes things are not looking so well for many countries but for others they’re quite bright: Brazil, Russia, Iraq and Kuwait. Just avoid the countries on the downslope; and yes, pray the bankers find a way to increase the oil price or production will collapse.

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      1. kuwait? Kuwait was once invaded by Iraq for stealing Iraqi oil.
        They can be invaded by Iraq, Iran, Saudis.
        The only country which may survive intact there is UAE. Saudi won’t attack them, neither Oman, nor Iran.

        I wouldn’t say the future is bright anywhere, but here and there will be twilight, instead of darkness.

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      2. Iraq is effectively a joint Amero-Iranian proctectorate/condominium.
        Remove either USA, or Iran, and everything will change there.

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        1. Do I understand this Polish melancholy of Julian?

          When I read Schopenhauer I had assumed he was German, and so his ideas made no sense …

          If only he had written a short introduction .. “Hi I’m Yoda from Poland, I got the syphilis from a cheap hooker and have sores all over my body … now this is what I think …”

          Where’s my point:

          Look dude, men are slaves, it’s true; So is their fate so important to justify worry?

          Do I care for women, the vast majority of whom have disrespected me by assuming I’m their slave?

          Click to access The_manipulated_man.pdf

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          1. Weltschmerz is a German word, not a Polish one.

            The German sense of melancholy is based on never being in the right place and being kind of ‘late’, something like the Japanese having ‘such a small country’.

            Poles actually are not very melancholic; they wouldn’t be uprising so many times if they were, or massively indebting themselves in CHF to buy apartments. Czechs are melancholic, though.

            Otherwise, I thought it is a blog about collapse….?

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            1. “Not very” … lol

              ok just a touch …

              This blog is just commentary on the philosophy of capitalism, additional notes on topics and issues raised in the book series and how they’ve evolved and grown as the collapse pattern unfolds.

              It began “before the collapse” because the research said it would collapse, but unfortunately; I may have to rename it “Collapsing” lol

              It is a great name though… before the collapse … just rolls off the tongue 🙂

              But in a year or two it might be considered dated 🙂

              I mean, we (the authors) were right. We were just trying to understand how to live best in a pre collapse society. Now? we figure out how to live best through the collapse. And next? After.

              I’m not giving up, I love this world. It’s great fun 🙂

              My wider point is this: you need to adapt Julian, to adopt a brain algorithm that focuses on the positives and opportunities … while not losing sight of all the traps. Stressing about oil output charts, stuff already known, modeled, and studied, is not profitable. Assume an opportunity exists; and look for it.

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              1. I know what you mean but the only pleasures left for us are simple pleasures…
                What are you going to do, establish yourself as a king of Thai jungle?
                Have you seen ‘Farewell to the King’ ? TPTB always come back.
                Better to be a monk than a king.
                You mentioned Salvian, I wonder where are monastic communities of escapees now

                I put the oil charts as you seems to swing towards the view that bankers are really in driving seat, whereas my view is that Nature (geology, astronomy etc) is driving…
                By showing the magnitude of deception we show the magnitude of the problem. If commies and ayatollahs are on the board, then who isn’t?

                I always wonder why dissenters are allowed to roam internet half-freely, and just noticed that all that EROI and ETP theory have kind of distracted me from considerations how much oil is really left, and from the cliff-nature of oil production collapse.
                What we have expected is slow-moving collapse, slowed by renewables and gas, with local,proxy wars, but what we get may be some big showdown for the sake of oil.

                We have been hearing for years and years about a war with Iran, and there is no war. We heard only two years about trade war with China, and probably there will be a real war.

                It is something from ‘The Wizard of Oz’, there is supposedly something something behind curtain, but not what we have expected…

                Also, why you insist on capitalism, whereas there is no free enterprise anymore, except on small scale. There is some kind of fascism, meaning merging of state and capital, which is obvious if you remember the famous words of Nathan Rotschild ‘I care not who makes laws….’…

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                1. Incidentally, the book Farewell to the King, originally a book called L’Adieu by Pierre Schoendoerffer, the guy who became a PoW during Dien Bien Phu and also wrote and directed the 317th Platoon, about a bunch of French soldiers (and a former SS foreign regionnaire) trying to escape from an outpost deep in Laos.

                  Maybe it was his fantasy to rule the hill tribes of Laos and having revenge against his Vietnamese captors.

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                  1. Oh sure, I just don’t understand why you use the word “we” … it’s fully understood that unless this deflationary collapse pattern is reversed we’re all fucking dead.

                    What? You only getting this now? lol

                    Fucking DEAD hahaha … I’m not exaggerating … EXTINCTION LEVEL DECISION POINT

                    The only thing I don’t know is what the CIA models say. I wonder if the TOP CIA psychos, ages ago, modeled this shit and realized it was all a dead end … so after said conclusion, that’s the big secret they keep under lock and key and everything else is distraction.

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                    1. And you call me a pessimist.

                      The collapse can be delayed by:
                      1) successful new technologies
                      2) removing some competition (last man standing strategy)

                      But only since this years (2) seems to have been pursued.

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                    2. I’m not a pessimist; I’m a realist. I define the Reality, that’s my job.

                      Everyday, on average, I spend one hour talking by phone concerning such. Nowadays I’m simply bemused and smoking doobie because oil went to minus 43. Minus.

                      That means we’ve already run out of time. It’s too late for delaying tactics. The entire U.S. industrial economy is essentially frozen and preparing to liquidate inventory BECAUSE prices are decided at the margin. It’s the weakest, most indebted, supplier that determines the price.

                      Unless something extraordinary happens; and quite soon, the next deflationary wave will commence triggering cascading liquidations and bankruptcies:

                      If you know you’re going out of business you fire your employees; liquidate your stock for the personal income; and then declare bankruptcy screwing your suppliers and creditors. This is why the indebted West is still in lockdown … Powell knows he can’t stop the liquidation … the fucking dumbasses are stuck while the East has already reopened.

                      Amazing; and the imminent danger is never mentioned by the media or politicians. There’s something wrong with the species, and your brain is an example of the problem: I point out, in the article body, an imminent extinction level economic threat and your brain response was to OCD on comets.

                      I wonder if the CIA guys that do industrial policy intel are frustrated or smoking dope too?

                      Liked by 1 person

          2. The only men who are slaves, are the ones who choose to be.

            The biggest sham perpetrated on men has been that women are equal to men or in another words the equality hoax.

            The only reason women have been elevated to current status is because men’s inherent energy derived from testosterone has been replaced with energy derived from fossil fuels and no one ever seems to mention that, including all the MGTOW’s, bachelors, etc. When the current paradigm of industrial civilization ends, so too will gynocentrism, because without the energy to prop women up, they will have to rely on men.

            Furthermore, all civilizations have signs of the times if you will that they are collapsing, which one of the biggest is when women are elevated to high status in society and their opinions are taken seriously which they shouldn’t be because they are emotional creatures and make their decisions in that fashion, especially to cater to their own sexual needs which leads to the sexual jungle that we see today.

            Don’t get me wrong here, there is a huge problem with men today, i.e. continuing to sign government marriage licenses, engaging with single mothers and taking care of other mens children, etc. All of these are choices men continue to make and sign up to be slaves.

            Engage with women on your own terms and live your life the same and you will be as free as they come.

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            1. The last two American women I’ve spoken to have a stated a hatred of China. Is there something going on here …

              Have western women identified a threat to their excess consumption?

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              1. It is competition for slaves.
                The Western women know that Asian women are a competition in a slave market.
                The Western women have never been really fond of Asia in the way they have been fond of Africa, for example. No Karen Blixen in Asia. You almost read sexual fascination behind those sympathies and aversions.
                This is also an issue with the immigration to the West since the directions generally reflect sexual fascinations of white womens, not of white men.

                Nevertheless, I once met a Chinese guy, very meek, married to American gal.

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                1. Asian men only marry white women when the Asian man makes a lot more money Google is not helping me, but it seems the majority of Asian men who married white women made more than $250,000/year.

                  the reverse is not true.

                  In fact, Unz.com has a bunch of articles regarding this subject. John Derbyshire, who married a Chinese woman (and probably regrets it now), also contributes there.

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              2. Chinese have a deservedly bad PR for their torture of dogs before eating them . A woman I spoke to recently described them as having something human missing in their brains ? Can you shed any light on this apparent total lack of empathy in an otherwise high average IQ race , Putrid ?

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                1. The world is run by psychopaths, which are characterized by the lack of empathy.

                  If anything, empathy is a liability.

                  That said, “IQ” is overrated.

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                2. White women are threatened by Asian women so their opinion is biased. I feel great discontent from females in the UK and USA because many potential slaves are already bankrupted and drug addicted—the marriage rate in the UK has collapsed utterly—followed by the emergence of the multi-million strong MGTOW movement and you have a decreasing pool of good slaves.

                  The imported barbarians have also not worked out—they’re mostly competitors for the dole—so the ladies are pissed. It can get worse; and that is if the productive white slaves decide to marry asian ladies with a high IQ and peasant expectations.

                  The Asian ladies don’t care what other ladies say … they know their nature … so they can appear to have limited empathy since they don’t faking it.

                  I’ve also noted a change in mating strategy by sub 30 year old white women in Thailand. Historically, women used praise and sex to manipulate men into becoming good slaves; but this younger generation has, perhaps, given up on this approach and chosen to use negative pressure?

                  Not just shaming language, but ridicule? I wonder if the women in America are the ones pushing for war.

                  Either way, macro trends are presently reversing; think of the armies of American men who are unable to meet child support payments? and alimony?

                  This storm shall only grow.

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            2. Ohio, Your idea of what is meant by “equality” is not the common interpretation. Men are not women’s equal any more than women are men’s equal if we are talking about physical and “emotional” attributes. This is such an obvious point that I don’t know why you go on such a rant about it…really? Why don’t you get yourself a nice testosterone-laden guy to hang out with and you can talk about all the wonderful things you have in common.
              And, speaking of men looking after “other men’s children”……you think that speaks well of men? Why is the man who fathered the child not taking care of his child? Consequences man, consequences.

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              1. I think you missed the point dude. Of course men and women are not equal, the only way women have been elevated to their current status is due to industrial civilization. Further, of course men raising other mens children are fools.

                I don’t think you understand my writing and if so, then my apologies for not being clear.

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  11. I think resource depletion is at the heart of all this discussion. The cost of extracting everything is way up so the surplus of the industrialized world is depleted. The world is bankrupt most people just don’t know it yet. The only thing that increases continuously is debts of all kinds. Do they really have enough oil surplus for another world war? Will that preclude it from happening? I wonder. Putrids preference for peasant women is amusing. The spoiled brat ladies may only have limited usefulness in the future. It may be a good thing to keep in mind.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I assure you that when this is all said and done …most western women will be part of the peasant class. Should be interesting to watch their surprised faces and hear their twaddle when a ham sandwich means a couple hours of hard labor.

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    1. “Chris Pirnak at chrishpirnak.com” and all those landlords who didn’t read the Reset are increasingly cornered… no getting out now boys …

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  12. Putrid, Are you looking at your technical indicators on a chart? Or you talked to some well-informed people?

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    1. Both.

      US CEO’s think flow in heavy industry has dropped by 80-90% … and GDP by 45%. It’s all going to come out in late July when P+L statements for the 2nd quarter are published.

      The indebted UK and USA are fucked; those fucking retards locked down when every sector is up to their neck in debt? and with high fixed costs such as rents, wages and insurance? Since Mnuchin didn’t do the Reset, it’s gonna go down as the most retarded and pointless public policy in recorded history: national suicide.

      Now, it’s entirely possible that the lockdown never really ends in the West. They now know, thanks to Putrid, that if they open the liquidation of tens of thousands of businesses will begin alongside insurance fraud—the torching of warehouses etc.

      “US jobless claims keep climbing to hit 38.6m since lockdowns began” is the FT headline today, millions more laid off every week … you see … the small businessmen are getting ready to sell. They’re not getting ready for a return to normal.

      With respect to the charts? OK, look at the weekly and you’ll note nasty reversal candles on Tesla, Bitcoin, Goldman Sachs etc. They’re all at resistance so unless Powell prints again, I expect a retest of the recent bottom. Goldman is the bell weather of US equities and she looks exceptionally weak in every technical way.

      Best,

      Putrid

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